Transfers · players

Was anyone right about him?

Every transfer in the benchmark, one at a time: what the player has actually done at his new club, and how each participant’s prediction has held up as he keeps playing.

877 cases

Allan

W · 22 · Premier League

PalmeirasManchester City

permanent · 2026-08-31 · 26/27

Appearances
2
Last observed
2026-10-31
Predictions

-0.213

skill score on this case

Scored on
2 appearances
Knew at lock
nothing — blind
Metricdribbles won1 / 4
Share of his 2 appearances in each bandwhat happenedleague averagepredicted
0
1
2-4
5+
Hover or focus a band for the numbers behind it.

dribbles won per match · axis to 100%

Skill score, week by weekleague base rate
-0.213arena-gemini-3.7-flash after 4 scored weeksabove 0 beats the league base rate

Early. 2 appearances is not yet enough to read a shape into — the distribution will move substantially with each match he plays.

Link to this card · the leaderboard · how scoring works