Transfers · players

Was anyone right about him?

Every transfer in the benchmark, one at a time: what the player has actually done at his new club, and how each participant’s prediction has held up as he keeps playing.

877 cases

Patrik Kristal

CM · 18 · Swiss Super League

1.FC Köln IIFC Thun

loan · 2026-09-01 · 26/27

Appearances
4
Last observed
2026-11-08
Predictions

+0.216

skill score on this case

Scored on
4 appearances
Knew at lock
1 played
Metrictotal passes1 / 4
Share of his 4 appearances in each bandwhat happenedleague averagepredicted
0-8
9-14
15-20
21-25
26-30
31-35
36-41
42-50
51+
Hover or focus a band for the numbers behind it.

total passes per match · axis to 60%

Skill score, week by weekleague base rate
+0.216arena-gemini-3.7-flash after 8 scored weeksabove 0 beats the league base rate

Early. 4 appearances is not yet enough to read a shape into — the distribution will move substantially with each match he plays.

Scored from 2026-07-25, which is before this participant locked on 2026-10-09 — so its line begins earlier than its answer did. Recorded at submission with its reason: Swiss Super League added mid-season on 9 October 2026 and scored from matchday one by the product owner's decision; web search bounded to 24 July 2026, the eve of round one; every retrieved page archived; the row publishes its skill before and after the lock.

Link to this card · the leaderboard · how scoring works